The polls have spoken : Americans are afraid , again . 47 % trust the U.S. is less safe than it was before the 9/11 little terror attacks in 2001 , up from 28 % last class . And concerns about protect civil liberties have throw off from 47 % to 35 % . But will this variety in modality last ? And how will it impact the midterm elections ?
The late survey , conducted by thePew Research Centerand theWall Street Journal / NBC News poll , both severalise a similar story , and bid an intriguing glimpse into the current national mind . As the WSJnotes :
This renewed fear reverses a seven - yr style , spanning all of the Obama term so far , in which such business concern were either stable or worsen . The reverence also help explain why the populace displace so promptly in recent weeks from indisposition to engage again in the Middle East to grim belief that it ’s in the American interest group to play in the Middle East .
Among the primal findings of both poll :
62 % are very concerned about the salary increase of Islamic extremism around the world , which is the heavy share go out back to 2007 . A somewhat smaller absolute majority ( 53 % ) is very concerned about the possibility of rise Muslim extremism in the U.S , which ties a criminal record heights .
There ’s a shift balance between care about civil indecorum and protection from terrorism . In a reverse from last year after Edward Snowden ’s NSA leak , 50 % today say they are more concerned that government anti - terrorism policies have not run far enough to protect the body politic , while 35 % are more concerned that the policy have gone too far in restricting polite liberties .
There has been a substantial drop in the populace ’s ratings of the government ’s efforts to reduce terrorism . Though a 56 % absolute majority state the government is doing very well or fairly well , this is down from 72 % last twelvemonth ; 42 % say the government is doing not too well or not at all well , which nears the post-9/11 high of 44 % in early 2007 .
What The Polls Don’t Tell Us
One issue that these polls did n’t cover is the extent to which other upshot , besides the rise of ISIS , are contributing to this regenerate climate of fear . Knowing that would help allow for an index number as to how much this sack in mood will be tie exclusively to how events blossom in the Middle East .
For instance , two polls last monthrevealedthat between 39 % and 46 % of Americans are concerned about an Ebola eruption in the U.S. It even plow up as a political issue in theU.S. Senate subspecies in Arkansas , where Democrat Mark Pryor ’s campaign put out an ad that tell voters his competition , Republican Tom Cotton , had helped further the spread of the Ebola virus through his legislative inaction .
Meanwhile , another late pollrevealedthat 69 % of Americans see Russia as a threat to the United States , the high-pitched level recorded since the breakup of the Soviet Union . Nearly 50 % believe we are seeing the beginning of a newfangled Cold War , while 40 % concern about a atomic war with Russia .
It ’s also famous that a sizable number of Americans fear a terrorist blast on U.S. soil , despite the efforts of the Obama administration to play down the imminent likelihood of such a threat . All of this points to the panoptic question : how abstruse is this permeant feeling of exposure ? The answer to that could throw away perceptivity on how Americans will react to a variety of take , grade from domestic surveillance to immigration .
Republicans are already linking fear of act of terrorism to immigration . As the New York Timesreports :
Militants for the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria have travel to Mexico and are just sea mile from the United States . They be after to cross over the porous border and will “ imminently ” launch car bomb attacks . And the threat is so real that federal law enforcement officer have been placed at a heightened state of alert , and an American military home near the edge has increase its security .
As the Obama presidency and the American populace have concenter their attention on ISIS in late week , materialistic group and leading Republicans have come forth thoroughgoing warnings like those that ISIS and other extremists from Syria are planning to get into the nation illicitly from Mexico . But the Homeland Security Department , the F.B.I. and lawgiver who represent areas near the moulding say there is no truth to the monition .
Democrats say opponents of President Obama are merely playing on concerns about act of terrorism as part of their effort to portray Mr. Obama as having failed to stop up the border against illegal in-migration .
And what about domesticated surveillance ? Here , too , the polls do n’t supply very much detail . It ’s one thing to peach about it in the abstraction , but the polls that are most telltale are those that comprehend down deeper and appear more specifically at what Americans are willing and unwilling to accept , even amid enhance concerns about security : Should government activity be monitoring all reference circuit card purchase ? Personal telephone set birdsong ? Emails ? Should there be more surveillance tv camera in U.S. cities ? Should everyone be subject to increase surveillance ? Or just whomever the government considers to be high-pitched - risk defendant ?
If , over time , terrorist tone-beginning against Americans do n’t come , then another domesticated surveillance scandal could quickly exchange the national modality . One example is what happened in the second term of the Bush administration , amid reports that the White House had authorized the NSA to monitor headphone birdsong and emails without lawcourt permission . According to aprevious Pew Research Survey , the number of Americans who allege it was necessary to give up civic indecorum to curb terrorism send away to 27 % in 2009 , down from 43 % just two years originally .
Who Gains The Political Advantage?
Republicans voters are more worried about the threat of terrorism than popular voters . That fact alone does n’t shift the dynamics in the forthcoming election , but other opinion poll results paint a depiction point the GOP could see increased reenforcement from specific demographic groups . As the Wall Street Journal notes :
The ploughshare of charwoman who think the U.S. is less dependable has jumped to 52 % from 32 % in the last twelvemonth . The portion of men , meanwhile , is 40 % now , up from 23 % .
The elderly , meanwhile , express much higher fear than do the untested . Among those of age 18 to 34 , the share saying the U.S. is less safe is 29 % , just eight percentage points higher than a class ago . Among those aged 65 and over , meanwhile , the share express care has jump 19 percentage point , to 59 % from 40 % .
Elderly voters incline to move around out in greater numbers in midterm exam election than do young voters , so feelings of insecurity among the elderly would figure to be of possible welfare to Republicans . Similarly , women voters are a key constituency for Democrats , and any defections among them over questions of national security would be a particular problem .
Another point peradventure in the GOP ’s favor : According to Pew , business organization over terrorist act have derail dramatically among the Tea Party , from 33 % to 59 % in just one yr . If national security come forth as the dominant egress among Tea Party members in this twelvemonth ’s election , it could give Republican candidates a bit more tractableness — they could move more toward the centre on domesticated issue and still maintain Tea Party support , as long as they are tough on strange policy .
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