The clock is officially tick .
Apophis — an asteroid as across-the-board as three football game fields — has a slender chance of flap down into Earth in 2068 . Before then , however , the objective is scheduled to zipper past us in an meeting that scientists are already be after to tap . Here are some challenging way in which we could research Apophis during its next close approach in 2029 .
In just nine years , potentially risky asteroid 99942 Apophis will come to within 19,000 miles ( 31,000 kilometers ) of our planet . At one - ten percent the distance between Earth and the Moon , that ’s a close shaving by any measure , and an exceptionally rare natural event for an asteroid of this size of it — it’ll actually be visible to the naked eye . Current estimates place the mean breadth of the objective at roughly 1,100 feet ( 350 time ) . The 2029 faithful approach is consider a once - in - a - thousand - year opportunity for scientist to analyze an physical object of this sizing as it brush past a satellite .
Asteroid Apophis (circled). The streaks are background stars.Image: UH/IA/NASA
Indeed , the gravitational stresses inflict on the asteroid during this flyby will be of peachy stake to scientists , but there ’s a potentially more urgent issue at stakes . Apophis isranked thirdon NASA’snaughty listfor potentially wild near - Earth object ( NEOs ) , with a 1 in 150,000 opportunity of hit Earth in 2068 . Otherestimatesplace the betting odds nearer to 1 in 530,000 , but regardless , Apophis represents a potential catastrophic threat .
Should Apophis collapse into Earth , it would loose the combining weight of 1,150 megaton of TNT , in an event 3,800 time more powerful than the atomic bomb detonated over Hiroshima . The 2029 secretive access , therefore , pose a crucially important chance to study this asteroid in more detail so scientists can further evaluate its risk potentiality . What ’s more , the physical exercise could assist as a trial run rivulet should we one day observe an object even scarier than Apophis .
With all this in judgment , theLunar and Planetary Instituterecently take hold a practical shop called “ Apophis T-9 Years : Knowledge Opportunities for the Science of Planetary Defense . ” The workshop , which ran from November 4 to 6 , included well-nigh 200 attendees and featured expert in asteroid , astrophysics , microwave radar uranology , robotics , and engineering . The point of the conference was to bring like - given masses together to ponder the various way in which we could investigate Apophis in 2029 .
Animation depicting the 2068 close approach. Blue dots represent satellites, some of which are farther away than the expected pathway of asteroid Apophis.Gif: NASA/JPL-Caltech
Speaking at the conference , Andrew Cheng , chief scientist at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory , call it a “ natural experimentation ” and a rarified opportunity to study the asteroid ’s exterior and internal . Indeed , there ’s plenty we still do n’t recognize about this asteroid and how its close encounter with Earth will vary its piece of music , orbit , and other attributes . Apophis was discovered 16 years ago , but we ’re still limited to vague measurements and farinaceous microwave radar image .
The list of unknowns and uncertainty is long , including the target ’s precise range , Yarkovsky drift(an essence in which the uneven leaking of heating system across an target ’s surface alter its orbital path ) , heat distribution ( which relates directly to Yarkovsky ) , rotation , form , strength , interior structure , chemical composition , surface web topology , and roughness .
Astronomers think Apophis is on an irregular basis shaped ( possibly like a cigar ) and that it ’s a contact binary , in which two object come together to form a single object ( as such , it could feature lobes and a neck , not unlike cometComet Churyumov – Gerasimenko ) . Truth is , we do n’t in reality know .
The Goldstone radar dish.Image: NASA JPL
Both earth - found and space - ground deputation in 2029 would help to clear up many of these enquiry . What ’s more , the mission could chronicle the various ways in which the near flyby with Earth will affect its various features , such as its spin and the potential translation of airfoil materials . The flyby could also trigger tiny avalanche and asteroid - quakes . And significantly , we ’ll live how the tight approach might affect its orbit and Yarkovsky drift charge per unit — both major factors in estimating its risk potential for 2068 . What ’s more , Apophis “ presents an first-class chance to prototype and demonstrate a rapid response NEO reconnaissance capableness , ” as Brent Barbee , an aerospace applied scientist from the University of Maryland , explained at the league .
The simplest way to observe Apophis will be from the ground . Radar scientist Marina Brozović from NASA ’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory say we can do this as betimes as next year , when Apophis willcome to within10.5 million miles ( 16.9 million km ) of Earth . This will be our “ last chance for radar imagery before 2029 , ” she aver . Yaeji Kim , a Ph.D. pupil at the Department of Aerospace Engineering at Auburn University , enunciate observations of the asteroid in March 2021 will improve our shape and twist estimate , ply better three-D modeling , and indicate potential landslip and structural failures . Importantly , some of these parameters can say us about what ’s chance inside the object .
In 2029 , however , when Apophis comes to within 19,000 miles of Earth ( fun fact : this is faithful than some satellite presently in orbit ) , that ’s when ground facility will really shine . Brozović heel a cluster of observatories that could chip in and facilitate , include California ’s Goldstone Solar System Radar , Canberra Deep Space Communication Complex , MIT Haystack Observatory , Germany ’s Tracking and Imaging Radar , and Arecibo in Puerto Rico ( pendingrepairs ) . She auspicate the open of Apophis will be resolved with more than 10,000 pel taken at 1.875 time per pixel resolution . This should get us “ full rotational coverage , ” she said , adding that radar polarimetry will disclose surface roughness , the dispersion of regolith ( surface material ) , and tidal resurfacing , while radiolocation tomography could reveal the depth of the regolith and subsurface structure .
Conceptual image of OSIRIS-REx, currently at asteroid Bennu.Image: NASA
This is all very hopeful , but Barbee said onsite or close - up observations of the asteroid are in all probability the “ only way of reducing doubtfulness ” in term of the object ’s scourge risk of infection . Once we ’re equipped with this knowledge and we have a better sentiency of the threat to Earth , we can then represent accordingly and cover a response plan ( such as nudge it away from its orbital path , but that ’s a news report for another day ) .
Like Barbee , many of the attendees at the league agreed that Apophis should be studied up - finis with spacecraft . There was no dearth of theme , with marriage offer for probe to examine the asteroid at a distance ( either during brief flybys or farsighted - duration rendezvous missions ) , deploying probe and sensors to the Earth’s surface , and various combination therein .
For the 2029 encounter , Barbee proposed his team’sReconnaissance of Apophis(RA ) delegation , which would involve a little ballistic capsule librate less than 400 pounds ( 180 kilogram ) . refer to it as a “ speedy response demonstration , ” he state RA would test our power to quickly develop a solution for exploring a potentially grave object and to develop deputation with an satisfactory lofty hazard of bankruptcy . Using solar electric downhearted - thrusting propulsion , RA would rendezvous with Apophis about six to eight month prior to the April 12 , 2029 swing past Earth . The probe would then stay in close propinquity to the asteroid , collecting data before , during , and after the flyby .
Conceptual image of MASCOT bouncing on an asteroid’s surface.Image: DLR
Alain Herique from the University of Grenoble Alpes said a probe equipped with radar could meditate Apophis ’s deep interior and regolith , which would reveal its stability and evolutionary history .
At a confining distance , a ballistic capsule could execute some geology to help square off the types of stone that live on Apophis and the effects of space weathering , said NASA JPL scientist Carol Raymond . We could document Boulder , fault , groove , and impingement craters , and also unveil hint , such as surface hydrogen , linking it to other NEOs , she said . Ideally , she visualize a investigation equipped with various cameras , spectrometers ( let in infrared and caloric ) , microwave radar , and radio capability . Raymond explained that a flyby mission to Apophis “ is good than nothing , ” but for Apophis , a “ rendezvous mission is strongly preferred . ”
Terik Daly , a wandering scientist at Johns Hopkins University , is looking forwards to the potential synergy produced by both ground - base and spacecraft - based measurements . He ’s especially implicated about how the closelipped approach might alter central variable applicable to Earth United States Department of Defense , such as Apophis ’s orbit , rotational United States Department of State , strength , porousness , and open topology . Daly say we need a plan to contemplate Apophis “ during , before , and after ” its closest approach , after which time we can re - value its possible threat .
A laser retroreflector.Image: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Engineer Jan Thimo Grundmann from German quad delegacy DLR propose an thought in which a spacecraft propelled by a solar canvas would slip into a “ parking spot ” near the asteroid and attend out for an extended period . Such a probe could deploy a roving lander to the Earth’s surface and continually correct its sails to keep up — and never have to vex about operate out of propellent .
Dante Lauretta , a professor of planetary science in the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory at the University of Arizona , said theOSIRIS - RExspacecraft — currently in orbit around asteroid Bennu — could reach Apophis by 2029 . Once at the asteroid , it could perform many of the task done at Bennu , such as map out the object ’s analysis situs , interpersonal chemistry , and mineralogy with a rooms of onboard pawn . This seems like a fantastic idea , as NASA ’s OSIRIS - Rex charge has been nothing but astunning successthus far .
speak of not having to reinvent the cycle , Grundmann proposed the use ofMASCOTto explore Apophis ’s Earth’s surface . These shoebox - sized golem , which were used tostudyasteroid Ryugu in 2018 and 2019 , are wandering , capable of hopping from blot to spot on an asteroid . They ’re also highly customizable , take a crap them a executable pick for Apophis . Grundmann suggested a MASCOT be air to Apophis equip with a seismometer .
Cheng would like to see an combat-ready impactor experiment done on the surface , which could acquire a seismal single-valued function of the asteroid ’s midland . This would involve a probe capable of practice through the control surface fabric , but he admitted the timeline are tight in term of build up the requisite technologies for such a mission . Aerospace engineer Masatoshi Hirabayashi from Auburn University also want to drill into Apophis , but he ’d like to see a investigation capable of measure the pressure just below the aerofoil , which would allow important datum about the dynamic stresses exercise onto the asteroid during the close encounter .
A really cool estimation purport by David Smith , an emeritus research worker at NASA Goddard in Greenbelt , Maryland , is to drop a bunch of small reflector onto Apophis , which would let scientists to get across the asteroid ’s motility for an full decade , if not longer . Should the reflectors change their office on the surface over time , scientists could take that as potential grounds of changes to the object ’s physical unity . Smith ’s plan calls for around 10 to 20 laser micro - reflecting telescope array , each consider around 0.7 snow leopard ( 20 g ) , strike down onto the control surface in 2028 ; they ’d be unfreeze from a stature of around 0.6 miles ( 1 kilometer ) and perform a slow free - fall onto Apophis ’s surface . A planet internet in Earth orbit would monitor the reflectors via X - band and optical maser altimeter .
More conceptually , Jay McMahon from the University of Colorado Boulder nominate the use of easygoing robotics to explore the asteroid ’s surface . These machines are idealistic for exploring small NEOs , as they ’re easy to deploy , extremely configurable , and can be used anywhere on the asteroid , he said . McMahon proposed a translation in which the easygoing golem would be fit with radar feeler , seismometers , gadget to appraise surface motion or strain , and prick to do gravity scientific discipline .
Like I say , no shortage of melodic theme . The paint now is to turn these concept into actionable particular and to ordinate possible missionary station to avoid redundancy and maximize collaborative potential ( multiple ballistic capsule around Apophis could make opportunity for some unique science , with the probe working in concert with each other ) . The next few year could be quite exciting , as we see some of these projection take shape .
Asteroid Apophis Could Still Hit Earth in 2068 , New Measurements Suggest
It may have occurred to some of you that these missions , whether flybys , rendezvous , robotic investigation , or practice session , might really alter Apophis ’s orbital dynamics and make the asteroid even more threatening to Earth . This was actually discussed at the league , and it ’s an issue important enough for me to devote an entire article on the subject . Stay tune up for more !
asteroidsAstrophysicsScience
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