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On Thursday , a roly - poly gnawer named Punxsutawney Phil will be hoisted from his burrow in front of TV cameras and cheering crew and be shout out upon to predict the weather . If this illustrious groundhog casts a shadow , legend has it that wintertime is here to bide for six more weeks .
Weird custom , huh ?
In fact , relying on rodents as forecasters may date back to theearly daylight of Christianityin Europe , when clear sky on Candlemas Day ( Feb. 2 ) were say to herald cold conditions in the lead . In Germany , the traditionmorphed into a myththat if the Dominicus came out on Candlemas , a porcupine would cast its shadower , predicting nose candy all the way into May . When German immigrants settled in Pennsylvania , they transfer the tradition onto local brute , replacing hedgehogs withgroundhogs .
Groundhog Day is now observe alive by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club , whose members like forPunxsutawney Philyear - around . ( Phil survive in an enclosing in the Punxsutawney Memorial Library along with several other groundhogs . ) Every twelvemonth , the Groundhog Club jump early with their charge and acquire him to a local hillside , Gobbler ’s Knob , for the weather - prediction ceremonial .
This year will be Phil ’s 126th prognostication . ( The Club is close - lipped about how many groundhogs have taken on the prediction part over the decennary , but marmot in immurement normally exist about 10 years . )
Phil ’s athletic supporter take a firm stand that he ’s preternaturally accurate at predicting wintertime ’s duration , but statistics do n’t quite bear out that claim . allot to the Groundhog Club ’s book , Phil has foretell 99 long winter and 15 early springs , with nine years of record lost . Those predictions have been right-hand only 39 percent of the time — 36 percent if you look at post-1969 predictions , whenweather recordsare more accurate .
" If Punxsutawney Phil is ripe 39 percent of the meter , that ’s much , much worse than a climatological prediction , ” Tim Roche , a meteorologist at Weather Underground tell LiveScience ’s baby siteLife ’s Little Mysteries . " Even if you flip a coin , you ’ll still be right close to one-half of the time – that ’s a 50 percent truth pace . So you ’ll be full off flipping a coin than become by the groundhog ’s predictions . "
Maybe so , but a coin would n’t be nearly as cute .
